In late June six years ago, nearly everyone predicted it [the 2006 Mexican presidential election] was going to be a very close election, which is exactly what happened. Nobody predicted that the new president would launch a military offensive or that the conflict with criminal organizations would turn as violent as it has. Nobody saw the H1N1 pandemic, Mexico’s ups and downs as the global economy hit a crisis, or the fact that Calderon would turn out to be a pretty good leader on environmental issues. Few believed the PRI would bounce back from their election loss to regain their status as the country’s top party.
I like Boz, and I read him regularly, because he has a good handle on the “inside the beltway” thinking of the Washington establishment, especially the military establishment. By “nobody”, I presume he means “nobody” in his circle.
While I don’t think anyone could have predicted the over-reaction to the H2N1 flu scare, and the real surprise of the world economic crisis wasn’t that Mexico experienced some ups and downs, but that it avoided the disasters predicted by the establishment thinkers. That Banamex managing to keep Citibank afloat was probably the most unexpected turn of events, though the unspoken role that our narcotics exporters played in keeping the existing banking system from total collapse is unlikely to win any accolades.
As I was saying six years ago (and as a lot of us so-called “lefties” were saying), Felipe Calderón was looking to to set up a militarized conflict … and did, even before Vicente Fox had left office (remember Oaxaca?). As we all pointed out, PRI was still the country’s major party and the Mexican establishment — left, right and center — were taking climate change quite seriously.
But, what’s said in Mexico is said by… nobody.