Half measures?

The Mexican government has been complaining for years that the violence in the narcotics trade is a direct result of U.S. failure to control the illegal firearms trade. Now that the Bush Administration (and the Calderón Administration) is all excited about the prospect of spending taxpayer’s money with private industries (like Halliburton and Lockheed-Martin) on Plan Merida, the U.S. is throwing in a sop that actually might accomplish something (though I doubt it).

Trailero1 at Mexico Trucker summarizes the proposal:

The United States is giving Mexico access to an electronic database to help trace weapons smuggled from the U.S. into the hands of well-armed Mexican drug gangs, U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey said Wednesday.The database, known as e-Trace, has already been installed at U.S. consulates in the northern cities of Monterrey and Hermosillo and in the western city of Guadalajara. It will be expanded to the remaining six consulates by March, and should be available in Spanish soon.

Elsewhere in the Mexican press, it’s being reported that U.S. Treasury Department Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) agents will be working on Mexican soil to investigate gun-running cases.

Two problems I see. First of all, with no reciprocity for Mexican agents working in the U.S. on gun-running cases, the initiative is bound to stir up Mexican sensitivities about foreign agents working on their soil, and there doesn’t sound like there will be full cooperation in controlling the gun trade.

Secondly, the U.S. consulates have promised to install all kinds of software systems in the past, and have a spotty — at best — record in following through on deliverables. In this case, I notice that the systems will only be available through the Consulates. In other words, it sounds like some investigator from Fulanotlan will be shit out of luck when there is a murder in his territory: unless there is some method for underfunded local police departments to access the U.S. controlled system (and why are they going to care one way or another about crimes that don’t directly relate to the U.S. — involving U.S. citizens or “kingpins”) I don’t see consular officials spending a lot of time on these investigations.

How complete the FBI database is I don’t know. I’m well aware that in New Mexico and Texas, any U.S. citizen can buy a gun privately from any other citizen. And do — go to a gun show if you don’t believe me. What happens to the firearms after sale isn’t traced… and there’s no way to do so. Nor, am I convinced, it will tell us much.

Bill Bob Gunnut may be a perfectly honest person who is following the regulations, and to whom the question of violence in Mexico is theoretical at best (though, knowing some Billy Bobs, they’ll often tell you that fear of Mexican narcos coming to their neighborhood is a good reason to own your own protective firearms). If a gun Bill Bob sells ends up blowing away a couple of Mexican AFI agents, we may stop that particular gun dealer but that’s like torching one farmer’s marijuana crop — plenty more of both guns and marijuana where they came from.

And, anyway, even if the dealer is identified, and even if there is a pattern of selling to Mexican gangsters — and even if there is proof that the dealer knew he was selling to gangsters, the Mexicans can only turn the matter over to U.S. prosecutors — who might or might not have the time, resources or inclination to pursue the matter.  Don’t expect any “gun king-pins”  to be extradited to Mexico any time soon (or ever).

And, I’m not sure we really want to know who is actually supporting the gunrunning and money laundering that finances the narcotics trade.

This is cosmetic policing. I’m not sure how seriously to even take this moderate proposal.  The best I can tell, it’s just other than a boondoggle for some software house.