What we have here is a failure to communicate…

Although this is a Mexico-focused website, it’s hard to ignore what has happened in Ecuador. The only Mexican connection, so far, has been that two survivors of the Colombian incursion are Mexican nationals (and are being tried in Ecuadorian courts). So far, Mexico has been able to maintain its strict neutrality when it comes to other nations’ internal affairs.  I think, however, Mexico (like Argentina and Brazil, which have already weighed in on the side of Ecuador) will be affected, though only obliquely.

While the whole thing may blow over — for the practical reason that no one wants a war, and it’s economically not feasible, there are some long term worries. It was Bill Clinton’s. administration that got the United States into the Colombian civil war, which was sold as an anti-cocaine trafficking police operation, we were warned we were involving ourselves in Colombia’s domestic politics. Given that funding for “Plan Merida” is still in the works, and the Mexicans, as well as some in the United States are concerned that the “real” use of military hardware will be to stifle internal dissent, this incident may have an echo in Mexican affairs over the next several months.

And, given that no country in Latin America is backing the Colombians (and, by extension, the United States), Mexican diplomacy may have a role to play here, if the Mexicans don’t (as I think they will) tilt towards the other Latin countries in this dispute. How the Calderon administration balances their role as a pro-U.S. state in this situation is going to be worth watching.

While the English-speaking press is beginning to realize the Colombia v. Ecuador… and Venezuela (and the rest of Latin America) is unlikely to erupt into a shooting war, they have still be slow in understanding that it is a serious issue, which will change the ways inter-American politics works.

Canada.com — and I give credit where credit is due — was the first English-speaking “main stream media” source to question the Colombian rationales for the attacks on FARC in Ecuador. Canada, like the United States and Colombia (and, if I’m not mistaken, Bahamas) label FARC a “terrorist organization”, but most American nations accept that they are a rebel organization seeking changes in their own country, not an international group. Even so, the Canadians have a hard time swallowing the “dirty bomb” story (a Colombian official claimed the laptop computer that somehow survived a rocket attack on a FARC encampment in Eucador — which killed 18 and wounded three — somehow spared a laptop computer that included, among other things, unencrypted correspondence regarding acquiring fissionable material… uh, right).

The Independent (U.K.), which some regard as a lefty rag, adds the obvious fact that FARC’s narcotics dealings are what earned them the cachet of “terrorist.” The Guardian does not overlook the fact that EVERY rebel group in Colombia (including the right-wing ones) — and for that matter members of the Uribe government — are involved in the same dirty business.

Another U.K. paper, The Guardian, with the veddy British gift for understatement, downplays the likelihood of a more than temporary crisis by noting:

Daily life largely continued as normal across Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. Caracas’s skittish middle class, which habitually stocks up on tinned food and toilet paper at the first sign of political turmoil, had yet to make a run on the supermarkets.

Venezuela, much to the delight of the right-wing, has a meat and milk shortage, importing commodities from Colombia. And Colombia’s army is about twice the size of the Venezuelan and Ecuadorian armies combined (plus is much better equipped and trained). The cartoon is from a Venezuelan newspaper (which also shows that the country does have a free press).

Both the Guardian and Independent articles are the best I’ve seen so far on the background of this situation. For the “whys and wherefores”, you need to go to more partisan publications. ZNet’s Justin Podur (reprinted in Venezuela Analysis) finds a logical reason for the Colombian actions in FARC’s negotiations with France and Venezuela for the attack.

Investor’s Daily oddly spins the whole mess into an argument for a free-trade pact between Colombia and the United States.

When Hugo Chavez says that Colombia is Latin America’s Israel, he is correct. They are the United States’ third largest recipient of military aid are using that aid to attack perceived enemies. And, apparently, with U.S. assistance, Colombia launched a missile attack on a foreign nation to wipe out what they consider a “terrorist”. A thought: a number of known terrorists live in Miami, and have attacked Cuba. Would the Cubans be justified in launching an air strike on Little Havana to wipe out Alpha-66 or Luis Posada Carrilles?

Can Mexico launch an airstrike on the El Paso Gun Show?