Strike one.. strike two…

Despite relatively high polling numbers, Felipe Calderon’s administration is in trouble. Two different Cabinet secretaries yesterday admitted that administration initiatives are no-gos.

Secretary de Gobernacion (Interior Minister or “Home Secretary”) Juan Camillo Mouriño, rejected the so-called “Mérida Plan” as “unacceptable”. The original plan, sold to the Mexican public, would have given Mexico five billion dollars in U.S. assistance to be used to prevent narcotics dealers from continuing to sell their products to the country to the north. The plan that emerged from Congress would have required Mexico to allow U.S. oversight of its national security apparatus and personnel, as well as restructuring its courts — which might not be a bad thing, but no country can rewrite its military justice code and willy-nilly start moving state court matters to the federal courts overnight — and certainly not for a vague promise of foreign military assistance.

While Mouriño is placing blame on the United States Congress — which cut the original funding amount and added restrictions on the plan that were impossible to comply with — the failure has to be seen as a humiliation for the Calderon administration. Like Vicente Fox, who trusted George W. Bush to push an immigration package through congress at the beginning of the last Mexican president’s term — Calderon looks naive at best. And… as with Fox … he risks being seen as an “entriguista” — a sell-out or sucker for the slick gringos. And a fool for falling for a gringo like George W. Bush who has a track record of making unfulfilled promises.

Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel Martínez is trying for a soft landing on the other failure of the day. She is now admitting that it is “possible” for the Mexican government to raise revenue, and for the Mexican economy to grow without privatizing PEMEX. In effect, she is admitting that the opposition has been right all along. While Kessel is sort of bowing to the inevitable (the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate are not going to go along with any privatization plan, nor can the Administration sell its contention that there is a constitutionally valid basis for doing so), she is also admitting that the PRD argument — that PEMEX probably has the money it needs, but is mismanaged. She said the company, with a more transparent accounting system, and cost controls, and some better contracting procedures could avoid privatization.

This isn’t to say the Calderon Administration has been a failure. Almost unnoticed have been the changes in the court system… adopting oral trials in federal cases doesn’t sound flashy, and isn’t going to make a noticeable difference for some time. Still, with evidence having to be presented in public, criminal and civil cases should be speedier and there is less chance of covering up judicial abuse or neglect.

And, what was probably the greatest success — and a real accomplishment of the Administration (the court changes came from the judiciary, not executive, branch) — has been shepherding pension and tax code changes through the legislature. Again, nothing flashy, but then,  Calderon isn’t AMLO.  He’s a bureaucrat, not a rabble-rousing union leader.  Supposedly, that’s what the voters wanted… if he believes he is who the voters wanted.

I get the impression sometimes (and have nothing to back it with) that Calderon is a bit insecure. Given his irregular — and still dubious — election over a rival who knew how to spin issues into mass popular movements — Don Felipe needs to create a sense of urgency. AMLO’s “Alternative Presidency” is still out there. Although you don’t hear much about AMLO right now (he passed through Mazatlan last week, and I didn’t even know about it until he’d left) sometimes is seems Calderon still is on the campaign trail.

And campaigning on the wrong issues. If he’d taken credit for real successes (even if he wasn’t completely responsible for them) like the new Ford plants and the Chinese auto makers who are setting up shop here, and great ideas like the billion tree program, he’d be an effective, but boring president

Instead, he’s trying to pass some test. But what might have been the right answer on a back at Harvard, asked the wrong question. It has never a “true/false question of “should a nationalized industry bring in foreign capital if its revenues are dropping?,” but rather an essay question: “How can a nationalized industry generate operating capital?”.

PEMEX never had to be privatized, and it probably doesn’t really need to open itself to corporate capital sources. There have always been other options. Calderon’s tax reforms lessened the need to PEMEX for federal revenues anyway. He should have taken some satisfaction in that, but instead, pumped out (by the barrel?) apocalyptic visions of a bankrupt nation if the people didn’t buy into privatization.

And now the “drug war”. The same polls that suggest a high popularity (and actually, they just show a Mexican by and large accept the job his administration is doing so far) also say people think the state is losing the “drug war.” Another lousy sales job. I’m not sure “war” is the right metaphor for an anti-crime push anyway. The way it’s playing out, with a rising death toll being sold as a success, it sounds as if the Calderon Administration is using the Bush Administration’s Iraq “surge” as a model.

Police reforms are starting to take effect across the Republic. There’s a lot that needs to be done. Juarez, for example, cannot hire enough officers, and can’t begin to pay officers enough to recruit minimally qualified honest cops. It takes time. Maybe the military is necessary in the short run, but by turning the narcos into an “insurgent force” — fighting Al Capones as if they were Al Qaidas — gives them a certain legitimacy and makes controlling them all that more difficult (and deadly). But, it does give Calderon an emergency, and make him look as if he’s doing something.

The danger for his administration is, just doing something may not translate into something the public will accept.