Viral campaigning in a time of viruses

The usurper government has abandoned the people and for that simple reason, these epidemics affect the Mexican population.

The official campaign season for the 2009 elections started last Sunday, and there has been concern that the Calderon Administration is using the “sanitary contingency” to control either control the opposition parties ability to reach the voters, or to surpress voter turnout — which would presumably benefit PAN.

PAN Party Chair German Martinez had floated the suggestion of delaying the election, but found little support for such an obvious ploy.  Most parties agreed to certain “temporary” restrictions — supposedly voluntary — that limit candidate meetings to small gatherings between 10 A.M. and 3 P.M. (which basically means workers wouldn’t be attending) and limiting campaigning to a media campaign.

While election and media laws require the television and radio broadcasters to run campaign material during prime time for all the parties, and even the minor parties are given equal access, it does limit the effectiveness of some campaigning, which has always been more hands-on in Mexico.

BUT… There are no restrictions on internet advertising.

AMLO, campaigning the old fashioned way. Photo: Gobiernolegitimo.org.mx

The Social Democrats (SD), a very small party and always in danger of losing their registration, seems to be “winning” the on-line campaign.  At least it’s SD advertising which pops up most regularly on my screen when I look at a site with random advertising.  The SD ads push a “progressive” social agenda (drug legalization, abortion rights, gay and lesbian equality) and pays less attention to economic policy, perhaps appealing for the geek vote — which may be enough to keep their party registration.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (who I quoted at the top of this post) — and is not a candidate for anything, but is stumping for Convergencia and the Workers’ Parties outside Mexico City (and for the PRD-Convergencia-Workers coalition in the Federal District) is arguing that, not being a candidate, he doesn’t have to follow the “temporary” restrictions, and recently addressed a daytime crowd of 2000 in Tamulté de las Sabanas, Tabasco.  David Agren drew attention to the fact that AMLO was  pointedly was NOT wearing a cubreboca.

His “Goberierno Legitimo” has also had a strong cyber-presence.  It’s websites aren’t always as slick as SDs (or the other party’s which can afford professionals) but the Mexican “netroots nation” is out there… and no one has any idea of how powerful it might be.

With recent polls (which others have commented on) showing a slight PRI lead over PAN, the discussion among the foreigners who pay attention to Mexican politics has been on the two main parties.  I expect this may have something to do with the U.S. assumption that no democracy can — or should — have more than two parties (something I’ve always felt was a weakness in the U.S. system).  Depending on the writer, the fact that PRI support had fallen a point was good or bad news, but what the commentators missed was that PRI’s 28 percent support and PAN’s 27 percent support doesn’t mean there is a huge bloc of “undecided voters” but that there is a huge bloc of voters who may chose other parties  — PRD, Convergencia, PT, SD or  the Greens (who weirdly enough are pushing the death penalty for kidnapping and murder, when you think the flu’s suspected ties to corporate agriculture and environmental damage would give them a winning “green” issue).

Lopez Obrador has been out of the media eye for the last two years, which doesn’t mean he hasn’t been active.  He has been organizing grassroots campaigns for the smaller left-wing parties (which were part of the old “Benefit for All” coalition), lending support to some factions within PRD and may have a built a stronger organization than we realize.  His supporters, especially in rural regions, tend to be the voters who are hard to poll anyway… often being people who don’t have landline telephones or regular internet access.

I expect more “flu-fallout” will emerge in the next few days as the campaigns get more heated.  And, I expect that the broad support for the Calderon administration’s proactive approach to the flu will somewhat limit the expected fall in PAN support, but it may not all be to the advantage of PRI… though with a stronger left, the Administration will be forced to make more concessions to the left in legislative iniatives.