Watchful waiting (with updates)

Like Woodrow Wilson, at the start of the Mexico Revolution, the policy for today is “watchful waiting”.  Two major events, neither of which are totally predictable are on the agenda today:

The Mexican Elections… via Ana Maria Salazar, CNN’s election forecast is for not much to change, although their assumption (that PAN will fare well) isn’t borne out by other commentators, who expect PRI to gain substantially. Voters are largely turned off by the election, with turnout expected to be extremely low, and a large number of voters opting to mark their ballots for no one. A few districts (including Sinaloa’s 8th district, Mazaltan) are completely up in the air as far as projected winners, but

The response to the flu scare, and the recent Hermosillo day care fire, as well as attempts to claim the opposition is riddled with narcotics-influenced corruption may or may not help PAN, but PRI is still expected to gain the most seats, which — coupled with the abstention — does indicate a rejection of the Calderon Administration’s policies.

Manuel Zelaya is expected to return to Honduras today… or not … with or without an escort from Rafael Correa and other Latin American leaders (looks like it’s gonna happen, now*).  Given the very real possibility of violence upon Zelaya’s return, this is a high-risk (as in physical, not just political) for Correa, who may not be in attendence, according to an unsources report in the Miami Herald (via “Two Weeks Notice“).

Hermano Juancito, writing last night, noticed something I also have about the pro-coup protests.  They’re just too slick:

… They [the protesters] all wore white shirts. Many had white shirts emblazoned “peace and liberty” with “I {heart} Honduras” on the back. (I saw no one selling them and so I guess the sponsors were providing people with them.)

As I walked toward the demonstration, I ran into a former politician I vaguely know. He’s one person whom I would call nearly incorruptible who has bravely stood up for his stance. He’s no fan of deposed President Mel Zelaya – nor of the interim president Roberto Micheletti. He mentioned that he wasn’t going to the demonstration; he believed that many had come with good will, but he was concerned that these demonstrations were being used by the right wing. A neighbor also told me she stayed away for the same reason.

“Honduras Frente al Golpe de Estado” published a e-mail that — if genuine — does show the marches were underwritten by corporate sponsors.  And counter-demonstrators are … shall we say… being discouraged:

Juancito points out that the Church hierarchy is backing the legal justification for the coup, but not the particulars, nor the continuing “situation of social injustice.”   Much of the support for the coup, as Juancito and others note, is also based in simple nationalism.  With the whole world having rejected the coup’s leadership, it’s being spun as rejection of Honduras (much as widespread rejection of the U.S. policies in Iraq led to “pro-America” rallies in the U.S.).

Key business leaders have apparently broken with the coup leaders. According to Radio Globo (Tegucigalpa), at a 5 AM business meeting, at least two important Honduran industrialists decided to pull their support from the coup, because it had failed to obtain support from outside.  By 5 PM (Eastern U.S. Time) Reuters was reporting that “de facto government”was seeking a compromise with the O.A.S. (to which it doesn’t belong).

[THERE MAY BE A DISASTER IN THE MAKING].  Venezuelan TV (Telesur) is reporting that police and military units have fired on the crowd awaiting Zelaya’s arrival.  Tear gas — according to CNN en Espanol.  I don’t know if everyone is having the same problem, but getting Telesur to load is impossible today.   16:40 Mazatlan time]… AP reports at least one dead, AFP has one dead, three wounded by bullets. CNN-Chile says 2 dead.

Here’s CNN’s video:

* In a press conference that got underway at OAS headquarters a few minutes ago at 11:55 a.m. ET (9:55 a.m. in Tegucigalpa), Honduran President Miguel Zelaya announced that two planes will be heading south today.
…
The first airplane will head from Washington DC directly to the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, and it will carry President Zelaya and Miguel D’Escoto, president of the United Nations General Assembly.

The second airplane will head first to San Salvador, carrying Presidents Rafael Correa of Ecuador, Fernando Lugo of Paraguay, Kristina Kirchner of Argentina, and OAS chairman Jose Miguel Insulza, “to begin the process… of assuring that the Democratic Charter of the Organization of American States is complied with” in Honduras.