Mexico another BRICS in the wall?

Very little, if anything, has been appearing in Mexican media (or, anywhere substantial, with a few exceptions back in March) about Mexican inclusion in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc. Given that nearly all discussions have either been superficial or from websites as obscure as this one. At most, a passing mention of “possible” membership in the group, or simply a recap of what possible advantages there might be, should Mexico be included.

Not that there wouldn’t be… trade with China (or China-based) businees has greatly increased, and cheaper Russian fertilizer would certainly be welcome. Not being tied to the US dollar for these imports and a more balanced export market aren’t necessarily a bad thing. After all, the world is changing:

The year 2020 marked parity between the total GDP of the G7 (the U.S. plus allies) and the total GDP of the BRICS group (China plus allies). Since then, the BRICS economies grew faster than the G7 economies. Now a third of total world output comes from the BRICS countries while the G7 accounts for below 30 percent. Beyond the obvious symbolism, this difference entails real political, cultural, and economic consequences. Bringing Ukraine’s Zelenskyy to Hiroshima to address the G7 recently failed to distract the G7’s attention from the huge global issue: what is growing in the world economy vs. what is declining.

Richard D. Wolfe, “The World Economy Is Changing—the People Know, But Their Leaders Don’t” Clunterpunch, 7 June 2023.

Given Mexico’s economic ties to the United States (with something like 75% of its exports depending on the US market); a presidential election; a growing (and also under-reported) trade dispute over GM corn imports; the perennial complaints from the US about “drug cartels”, a massive pushback from the United States were Mexico to seriously consider allying openly with China and Russia… one can’t imagine it being allowed to happen.

That is, as it stands right now, the US still has more influence … and something of a veto … over Mexicn policies. That is, while the US limits itself to rhetorical rejection (or, ignores) Mexican policy towards countries unfriendly to itself (Venezuela, Cuba, Boliva), it’s well understood by those countries that in bodies like the United Nations, Mexico cannot outright support them, at the best abstaining when the US and its allies vote in opposition to something favored by those countries (and often the rest of the world).

Whether US “sanctions” (under one or another justification) against Mexican businesses and individuals, more demands for “arbitration” over trade issues under “NAFTA 2.0” (The US, Mexico, Canada Trade Agreement), building yet more walls and other barriers to cross-border movement, or even more repressive measures (say, labeling “cartels” as “terrorists”) might follow.

It could happen… but I’m not holding my breath.

sources:

Astrid Prange De Oliveira, “Los países BRICS se redefinen por oposición al G7“, DW, 26 March 2023.

“More than 30 countries want to join the BRICS“, moderndiplomacy, 24 may 2023.

“BRICS nations offer a new world order as alternative to the West“, DW, via The Hindu, 27 March 2023.

Richard D. Wolfe, “The World Economy Is Changing—the People Know, But Their Leaders Don’t“, Counterpunch 7 June 2023.

“Mexico seals BRICS Decision: Joining #BRICS Alliance! How Will It Impact the World?” Video, LineFlux,