Will the next president be a SHE, who must be obeyed? The latest poll

According to the El Financiero poll, assuming the next June’s Presidential election is between united opposition (PRI, PAN, PRD) front runner Xóchitl Gálvez, the Morena-PT-Green’s Claudia Sheinbaum, and Citizen’s Movement’s Samuel García, Sheimbam would still come out ahead, 42% to Galvez’s 34%, with Garcia at 8% (more than sufficient to keep his “centerist” party relevant and eligible for a decent showing in proportional legislative seats.

While the various factions have yet to announce their candidates, Sheinbaum has shows a small advantage over her most credible rival for the nomination: former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard. We don’t know how internal polling within the runing coalition has been going (the party is using a series of polls in lieu of US type primaries, but polls show Sheinbaum at 28%, and Ebrard at 21%, with the other “primary” candidates all far behind. This is one point more for Ebrard and down two for Sheinbaum, so it is still very likely that the Morena coalition candidate could be Ebrard.

In that scenario… and assuming Galvez and Garcia is on the ticket, Morena still holds a even stronger lead: 44% for Ebrard, 34% for Galvez. Garcia’s numbers don’t change.

Of course, Galvez might not be the opposition candidate (and the Citizen’s Movement could back either of the two major coalitions… or the opposition coalition could cocievably split between a PAN-PRD and PRI candidate… Santiago Creel (PAN), Enrique de la Madrid (PRI) and Miguel Angel Mancera (PRD) are at a staistical tie of 14,13, and 12 percent respectively.

Methodological note: National survey conducted by El Financiero by telephone among 500 adult Mexicans on July 28-29, 2023. A probabilistic sampling of residential and cell phones was made in the 32 states. With a confidence level of 95%, the margin of error of the estimates is +/-4.4%.