Oacaca — PRI giving up?

My very loose translation from an article in today’s Jornada suggests the PRI is already trying to make excuses for a very possible defeat in Sunday’s Oaxaca state elections:

México, DF. The (PRI) admits it is a target in next Sunday’s Oaxaca elections, in light of the PRD (Partido Revolucaionario Democratico)’s strategy of “hauling” voters into the region, and the return to the streets of the.

Beatriz Pagés, PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional) Chamber of Deputies spokeswoman admits her party is a “target” for defeat in next Sunday’s Oaxaca state elections, and blames the rival PRD (Partido Revolucionario Democratico) for the renewed demonstrations by the Asamblea Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca (APPO) and dissident teachers.

Pagés said her party could not help but notice that the return of the APPO was having a political effect, turning out voters who were likely to favor PRD over PRI.

She underlined that one goal of the APPO was to throw out PRI Governor t Ulises Ruiz.

Although Pagés added that she could not predict the electoral outcome, it was evident that PRD would do well in Oaxaca, one of the states with the most electoral districts in the country. She added that the PRD has a strategic advantage in Oaxaca, and that the party has been consolidating its power in the southeast part of the country.

“The PRD’s political transformation is behind the renewed street demonstrations by the APPO,” she said.

I don’t expect Oaxacan results will be available until a week or two after the election (for state legislature and local offices, but not for Governor). There are several districts that vote not by secret and free ballot (as the Mexican constitution mandates) but by the conflicting constituional right of communities to maintain their “usos y cosumbres” — they vote by consensus.

Much as some starry-eyed foreign observers would like to believe there’s something genteel and “natural” about “usos y costumbres” in practice it means that dissent or free though — whether political, religious, sexual or otherwise — is not tolerated. In elections, the practice has been to “persuade” these voters to fit whatever results are needed by the ruling party. There usually is some violence in Oaxacan state elections, and all kinds of chincanery. I expect it will be brutal.