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Election Results II

5 July 2009

The U.S. press was saying this election hinged on narcotics-export related violence and the economy (or rather, the Calderon Administration’s response to these issues).   One test of the Administration’s strength would be Chihuahua, where PAN normally does well.  However, in the state as a whole, PAN is only receiving 28.6 percent of the vote, to PRI’s 37.6.  PRI’s junior partner, the Greens, are receiving 12 percent.

Within Juarez… “ground zero” of the “drug war”… PAN is only ahead in one of the four districts, and only by 500 votes with 26 percent of the preliminary count done.  Absention (which may indicate a pox on all your houses…. or just giving up on political change) is very high, running a hair under 68 percent statewide.

Null votes (7.8 percent) outpoll all the PRD, PT, SD and Convergencia COMBINED.   The left doesn’t do well in Chihuahua at any time.

In Baja California (the other “ground zero” for narcos), PAN is doing well… just about the reverse of the national figures — PAN: 38.1; PRI: 26.8.  Here, as in Chihuahua, the turnout is very low — under 30%, and the null vote is almost 7 percent.

In the Federal District, where the PRD rules,  PAN usually manages to capture a seat or two.  Right now, PAN is leading (overwhelmingly) in Benito Juarez (the Zona Rosa, Chapultepec, etc) and one district in Gustavo A. Madero, also one of the wealthier neighborhoods.  Although, in something of an upset, it looks like Demetrio Soldi (running for PAN) will defeat Ana Gabriela Guevara (PRD)… who finished second at the Olympics, but was expected to do well in this race.

I kind of like Demetrio… who looks like Buddy Ebsen and isn’t all that conservative.  He jumped to PAN from PRD, mostly because PAN couldn’t find a viable candidate to run for Jefe de Gobierno in the Federal District against AMLO way back when.

In the 4th Itzapalapa District, where the PRD and PT came to blows over a AMLO supported candidate (the PT candidate getting AMLO’s nod), the PT candidate is far ahead, proving AMLO still has a base in the urban working class neighborhoods.

In Jalisco,whee the PAN governor, and an ultra-rightist Catholic movement would seem to favor the President’s Party, PRI is also leading (except in Tequila, where PAN has a slight edge… there’s gotta be a joke in there somwhere, but I can’t think of it).

Turnout in the Federal District and Jalisco is about average… 43 to 45 percent.

One Comment leave one →
  1. 6 July 2009 1:17 pm

    oaxaca has interesting results…got a call, RG?

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