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Electoral Update III.. over and out

5 July 2009

This could be the face of Mexico’s next President.

paredes

If there was any clear winner in the mid-term election, it was PRI chair Beatriz Paredes.  Having rebuilt the party, pushed back the worst of the dinosaurios (though she hasn’t seen fit to purge anyone yet) and brought what was thought to be the party of the old, nostagic and crooked back from what seemed to be an expected long decline into irrelevance, Paredes has to be on any short list for the 2012 Presidential election.

PREP figures give PRI about 36 percent of the overall vote to PAN’s 27 percent and PRD’s 12.3 percent.  PRD fared worse than I expected (I’d guessed they’d capture somewhere around their normal 15 percent), but not as badly as some feared or hoped.

PRI managed to hold on to Veracruz (where the governor is widely despised as a crook, and blamed by many for the swine flu outbreak), as well as Sonora, where the governor was blamed for the Hermosillo day care fire (though, PRI shot back that one of the day care center’s owners was a cousin of the first lady).

PRI won every one of the five “Circunscripciones” which will increase the number of seats in the Chamber and Senate dramatically. The country is divided into five roughly equal super-distircts (Circunscripciones) of several states, where proportional representatives are awarded based on relative party strength within the region.

The Greens (which are partners with PRI) also did relatively well, which will add to PRI’s ability to control the agenda for the next three years… and beyond.

It looks like the two Lopez Obrador parties — PT and Convergencia will both hold on to their national registration (requiring a minimum of 2.5 percent of the vote) and will probably rejoin their alliance with the PRD,  for their mutual survival, if nothing else.  Unless, of course, Paredes does the impossible, and convinces PRD to join with PRI in a center/left of center coalition.

The Social Democrats will be losing their registration, which… as I said earlier… they do regularly.  They’ll be back under a different name by 2012.

NOBODY beat the Social Democrats though (and the PT and Convergencia too)… gaining about six percent of the overall vote.  There is support for the “voto nulo” concept (and Calderon mentioned supporting it tonight on television), but how well the concept fares in a PRI legislature is hard to say.  The party was opposed to the concept, with what support it had from the political class coming from PAN, which doesn’t get the make the rules for now.

More later this week.

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