Tegucigalpa Two-Step

In the kerfluffle over Honduran army attorney Col. Herberth Bayardo Inestroza’s admission that the army’s role in the coup was illegal (although, according to the Colonel, necessry to avoid violence), a small admission that was overlooked, may be the key to why the discredited, and disasterous “de facto government” is hunkering down for the long haul.

Col. Bayardo, speaking to the Miami Herald and ElFaro.net (El Salvador)

…  acknowledged that after 34 years in the military, he and many other longtime soldiers found Zelaya’s allegiance to Chávez difficult to stomach. Although he calls Zelaya a ”leftist of lies” for his bourgeoisie upbringing, he admits he’d have a hard time taking orders from a leftist.

Memories of the 1980s fight against guerrilla insurgents are still fresh in Honduras.

”We fought the subversive movements here and we were the only country that did not have a fratricidal war like the others,” he said. “It would be difficult for us, with our training, to have a relationship with a leftist government. That’s impossible. I personally would have retired, because my thinking, my principles, would not have allowed me to participate in that.”

And if Zelaya comes back, he’ll have to retire anyway.

”I will resign and leave the country, and so would most of the military,” [Bayardo] Inestroza said. “They would come after us and the other political leaders who were involved in this.”

It’s no surprise that the Colonel says that the military sees the political coloration of their civilian leaders as changing their loyalties.  Although some want to make an issue out of the close Honduran-U.S. military ties (and they are there… and are scary — like those of new “ministry assessor” Billy Joya, a fugitive from justice wanted for various crimes against humanity dating from his days as a death squad leader) what’s more to the point is that the 1982 Constitution was written to permit the transition frrom a military dictatorship only removed direct military control over the nation by  preserving military  perogatives, while at the same time preserving the economic and social status quo.

For people like Col. Bayardo, a change in the political system that could mean a change in  the status quo — installing, in his words, a “leftist” — is unthinkable.  To him, a “leftist”, even an elected one, is not a legitimate leader.  Which doesn’t fare well for democracy, the choice of the people and all that.

What’s more interesting is the refusal of the “de facto government” to give in, and admit they’ve blown it.  Relying on a constitution that was designed to protect their perogratives (and fearful of even a call for amending or replacing the document) they’ve backed themselves into a corner.  With Foreign Minister Enrique Ortez FOR THE SECOND TIME using crude racist epithets against the President of the only country which sort-of  maintains a “de facto” recognition of  the “de facto government” , the coup leaders are likely to find no place to run when the thing is over (Andres Oppenheimer says there will be a settlement in three months.  As any student of Latin American politics can tell you, whatever Oppenheimer says WILL happen, won’t).

Obama probably isn’t as petty — or as much a drama queen as Mel Zelaya and Roberto Micheletti — but there’s less and less chance the United States will be able to plausibly find a reason to give the coup-mongers political asylum.  No one in the Americas, or in Europe wants them… which doesn’t give them a lot of choices if they have to take it on the lam.

Mel Zelaya may be something of an incompetent buffoon when it comes to governance, but he’s likely to win this round, thanks to Micheletti’s handling of the intended return of the deposed president.  As Honduran blogger “figgy” (no “Friend of Mel”, she) sees it:

… Micheletti has given Zelaya a perfectly good excuse for not coming to Honduras as he has said he would. By giving the order that Z’s plane would not land, M is looking TERRIBLE to the international community. If Z does decide to El Salvador, he can have the higher ground by simply saying that M is a liar and is abusing his power. This will give Z even more leverage internationally and it will make M look even worse than he does now. Z can call for a peaceful dispersion of his people, which will make him (and them) look peaceful and rational, which in turn might make people HERE turn to Z’s side again. Politically speaking, going to El Salvador where all his supporters wait would be the smartest move Z can make at this point.

And it REALLY doesn’t help that the government has now done one of the ‘national broadcasts’ where they take over every TV and radio station to broadcast their signal. This isn’t rare, mind, Zelaya was particularly fond of the broadcasts. But by keeping the people uninformed (or at least UNILATERALLY informed), M is looking worse and worse. Which is exactly what Z wants. Very, very bad move.

And — pissing off the only country that still supports the “de facto government” and alienating everyone else — is also a very, very bad move.  For when you will need to move.  Which will be very, very soon.

In the meantime, as the two dueling prez’s play games….