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Honduras: please hold

14 July 2009

Nicholas Kozloff argues that one possible behind-the-scenes reason for the Honduran coup was a fight over telecommunication deregulation… Zelaya being opposed to it, and the coup-monger, for.

Be that as it may, any attempt to restore the legitimate government is on hold.  Bloggings by Boz noted this morning that:

…we can be 95% certain there will be a democratically elected leader in six months. Whether or not Zelaya returns, it’s almost certain that elections will be held in November (if not sooner) and a new president inaugurated in January.

That was true before the coup, and would have been true even if the referendum (which was unofficial at any rate) was held … even if ballots printed in another country (the latest spin on why the coup was justified) there STILL would have been a new President in January.

The only reason at this point for a coup is to destroy any opposition to the status quo before an election can be held, and the longer the coup holds on, the less likely there will be any change or real democratic options on the November ballot.

Which was probably the whole point in the first place. I expect some kind of “settlement” acceptable to the United States that allows the elections to be held– with the guys who bent the law (and that’s being generous) being able to set the ground rules to assure they remain in power. In other words, rewarding the coup for staying on the line.

In the meantime, expect even more opposition figures to come to untimely ends as Hillary Clinton dithers.

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