Storm warning

It’s almost a given among those who think the present “War on (some) exporters” is futile is that gangster leaders are more or less replaceable parts in the infernal machinery of “free trade” at its most brutal, and bumping off various key executives just leads to nasty “boardroom fights”.  Ciro Gomez Leyva, in yesterday’s Milenio, points out its worse than that (my translation):

In what is probably the most useful published analysis of the four years of war against organized crime, Eduardo Guerrero (Nexus, November 2010) coolly and methodically dissects the results of the arrest of crime bosses, which “have triggered large waves of violence, that lasted several months and have led to the deaths of thousands of people.”

The author propounds that the two worst violent waves of four years were related to:

1) the arrest of Alfredo Beltran Leyva Mocha, and the consequent release of their brethren in the Sinaloa cartel, leading to a coalition between the Zetas and the Juarez Cartel (May-November 2008), and

2) the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva (December 2009-May 2010).

According to Guerrero, “the arrest or elimination of a boss of a large criminal organization tends to lead their division, resulting in the birth of new organizations.” To build their reputation quickly,  emerging groups specialize in violence and are intensively engaged in creating their image as well as their own survival.

These new organizations break the existing equilibrium among the gangs and generate a competitive dynamic in which the capacity for violence is a key factor for success.

Arturo Ezequiel Cardenas, Tony Tormenta (“Stormy Tony”) , as well as being the brother of Osiel, was in charge of controlling the border cities of Tamaulipas. Nothing more and nothing less.  The question remains what will happen in Tamaulipas now, after the death of this boss.

If Eduardo Guerrero’s thesis is correct, we will be in for the worst damn storm yet of these last  four years.

In other words, if we think organized crime is bad, “organizing” crime is worse.