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Who you gonna call?

10 December 2010

María de las Heras was Milenio’s pollster before resigning last March after accusing the media company of mixing her results with those of another pollster about whom she expressed “reservations about the quality and professionalism of his work”.  Her polls are generally accurate, but there are questions about her methodology, specifically those based on her contention that telephone polls over-poll PAN voters (or likely voters) — based, it seems, on the relative scarcity of land-lines in less wealthy households (which are less likely to vote for PAN).  Given that this poll was a telephone poll, the results are remarkable.

Based on a 4 December poll, she finds that 40% of Mexicans STILL believe fraud was involved in the 2006 Presidential elections.  If you remember, much of the political negative advertising against the “Benefit of All” coalition candidate, Andres Manuel López Obrador, suggested (or came right out and said) AMLO was a “danger to Mexico”.  Asked if AMLO was a danger to Mexico, only 36 percent of respondents thought so, 56 percent saying he wasn’t. Eight percent are unsure.

The surprise was when the same question was asked about Felipe Calderón.  41 percent of respondents think he is a danger to Mexico and fully a half of respondents are unsure.

If de las Heras’ numbers are correct, public opinion is about evenly divided as to whether the country would have been better off under an AMLO administration as opposed to the present one.  Apparently (and again, with the proviso that de las Heras’ polls are accurate) support for a PRD candidate in 2012 is about the same as it was in 2006:  around 35 percent.

However, perhaps reflecting the belief that fraud was a factor in the 2006 election, only about 15 percent of respondents think a PRD presidency is very likely, although 48 percent think it is possible, but not probable.

Of course, the report comes from SDPNoticias, which is overtly pro-AMLO (and often refers to Felipe Calderón in articles as “the former PAN Presidential candidate”), but I’ve suspected that there is more AMLO support out there than has been reported.  I’ll have more to say on this, after digesting what Aguachile (who seems to have soured on AMLO) has to say about recent political manouvering.

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