proles, polls, and pols … but maybe not a prez

… There is absolutely nobody on the streets celebrating the apparent victory of Enrique Peña Nieto.  In contrast, streams of young people have been coming out to express their opposition to the imposition of a new president who seeks to turn back the clock on the little progress we have made in building a democracy. More people participated in Saturday’s mega-march that showed up to pack Azteca Stadium for Peña Nieto’s campaign finale two weeks ago.  If the PRI candidate is finally endorsed as president-elect by the Electoral Court of the Judiciary of the Federation (TEPJF), his mandate promises to be one of the weakest and most dubious in history.

(John M. Ackerman in Jornada.  My translation)

Perhaps it’s an admission that Mexico is more elitist than one wants to think, but in pointing out that the more education a voter has, the less likely they were to support Peña Nieto, Ackerman is also highlighting a serious weakness in the presumed winner’s future support.  His  base is overwhelmingly the very people “dissed” in his campaign (those “proles” Peña Nieto’s daughter dismissed as unimportant) and women.  The presumed president elect will have a particularly difficult time as President and an even more difficult time for Mexico. But, while there are masses in the streets, this will be a battle of the elites.

Keeping the educated elites in line would require:

… that Peña Nieto … exclude and repress their opponents out of pride, instead of accepting [his relative political] weakness with humility. One of the most vulnerable areas, for example, would be free speech. Although it is hard to believe, a Peña Nieto government could easily become much worse for journalists, both in terms of personal safety and tolerance for divergent views than the present situation. In Veracruz, where nine journalists have been killed in just 18 months, is governed by another representative of the “new” PRI, Javier Duarte — possibly reflecting the likely scenario.

There is another way:

Serious irregularities in the electoral process, including the grossly exceeding campaign spending limits, vote buying, media manipulation and fraudulent polling are more than enough to justify the possible annulment of the presidential election for failing to comply with the constitutional principles of “authenticity” and “freedom.” But besides being legally feasible, such an outcome would also be politically expedient given the situation of widespread public rejection to Peña Nieto and the precedent it guarantees to sets for impunity after one of the dirtiest elections in history.

In short, something not well understood, is that simply counting the votes, as IFE did, does not make Peña Nieto the President-Elect. With even Felipe Calderón now agreeing that investigations into the election are warranted, we may find ourselves in one of those ironic situations where the Mexican Constitution and “rule of law” forces a solution that isn’t one the United States government, nor the multinationals and financial elites have a vested interest in creating.