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We’ve got the power… only if

15 September 2015

This is amazing in a way.  Morena… the left-ier of the two main left wing parties… didn’t even exist until this last election but will be the largest party in the Mexico City Assembly.  With PRD (the old lefty party) Assembly member Aleida Alavez defecting to Morena, the new party now has 20 of the 66 seats, while the PRD — which used to count on up to 43 seats (a 2/3rds majority minus 1)* only has 15 seats.  Even with PRD’s alliance with three small parties (two of which have lost their registration after their poor showing in the July elections) which only are entitled to one seat each, the formerly dominant party will only be the second place party.

If, as I expect, Morena allies with two other new parties —  both heirs to movements that normally allied with the left wing of the PRD in the past — Social Encounter (4 seats) and Citizens Movement (3 seats) … the AMLOista faction will control 40 percent of the Assembly.  While Morena is questioning the legality (and ethics) of a PRD coalition with the minor parties (the Humanista Party… holding one seat… is a ideological mystery, more Fascist than leftist), one can expect the fractious left  to to control over 2/3rds of the Assembly seats.

The Morena left-wing populist control might be further solidified later this week, as more assembly members are expected to defect from PRD, and votes are recounted in one Gustavo Madero Delegacion, where there was less than a one percent difference between the PRD victor and the Morena challenger.  As of today, PRD controls six of the sixteen delegaciones (but several of those only in coalition with smaller parties) and Morena five.  Should the recount work on to Morena’s advantage, there is no way anyone can claim the upstart AMLOista party is not the third force in Mexican politics

Wiith a general left-ward tilt in world politics, and even New Dealers making a comeback in the United States (Bernie Sanders), IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE (maybe… maybe not), the two traditional parties (and a good part of the third-place PRD)  sees their mission between now and July 2018 to be to discredit, destroy or marginalize Morena’s leader, Andres Manuel López Óbrador.

SOURCES:

SDP NOTICIAS: Ordena TEPJF recuento total de votos en elección a jefe delegacional de GAM

ANIMAL POLITICO: ALDF: Morena deja de ser mayoría; PRD, PT, Nueva Alianza y el Humanista forman alianza

REGENERACION: Diputada Aleida Alavez se une a Morena, que es mayoría en ALDF

EL UNIVERSAL: Morena: la coalición con PRD es un “agandalle”

 

* The Federal District Assembly, by law, cannot have more than a two-thirds majority from any one party. With the mixed “first through the post” and proportional representation system used in Mexican legislative elections, if one party has a super-majority, it loses some proportional representation seats which are assigned to another party. The only time I recall this happening, the PRD lost a seat to a representative from a minor party that lost its national registration, but had managed to win enough votes in one delegacion within the Federal District to qualify for a seat.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. 15 September 2015 9:18 pm

    Maybe they need to import some US Republicans to fine-tune their mission between now and July 2018 to … discredit, destroy or marginalize Morena’s leader, Andres Manuel López Óbrador.

    After all, who else has a comparable level of expertise in such matters?

    Saludos,

    Kim G
    Boston, MA
    Where we are viewing the 2016 presidential campaign with some degree of fascination.

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