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The Google Poll?

13 March 2018

Citibank analists make a case that Ricardo Anaya’s campaign is heating up, and AMLO’s is losing ground based on the number or recent google searches.  As Citibank researchers note:

Google search trends better predicted who would win during the last two Mexican Presidential elections than did voter intention polls. More searches for PAN’s Felipe Calderon in 2006 and PRI’s Enrique Pena Nieto in 2012 accurately predicted they would win the presidency even as polls underestimated the candidates’ leads, the analysts said.

While the bankers caution that the rise in the number of people searching out information on Anaya could be looking for more information on the recent allegations of money laundering by the PAN-PRD fusion candidate, one should also remember that “twice is happenstance”.  There was no revolution in 2010, as so many predicted based the coincidence of Mexico’s war of Independence having started in 1810 and its Revolution in 1910.  Nor, with AMLO searches (which might include searches for “AMLO”, “Lopez Obrador”, or “Obrador”) still vastly outnumber the searches for “Anaya”.



(Michelle Davis, Google Searches May Signal Trouble for Mexico Election Favorite, 12 March 2018, Bloomberg Technology)

One Comment leave one →
  1. 13 March 2018 9:04 pm

    Thanks for your coverage of the election. I haven’t had the will to follow it closely in the Mexican papers, so your blogging is literally the next best thing. Perhaps better, even.


    Kim G
    Redding, CA
    Where the U.S. still has not come to grips with the last election.

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