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Nothing right?

5 June 2020

What was said then, still applies:


“It is evident that there are different visions of how to face the COVID-19 pandemic, from the Swedish to the Asian model. Without a road map the debate is important. However, the debaters have diverse interests: large corporations that seek to attack the official that represents a threat to corporate interests; those that have a political agenda and and seek to take advantage of the situation to position themselves; and those who are convinced the strategy pursued here is unsuccessful and a different approach is needed.” (Alejandro Calvillo in Sin Embargo, , my translation)

What has changed since mid May is that the virus is still rampant here (being just south of the epicenter suggests it’s moving this direction) and the final mortality rate may be about three times today’s 12.500 COVID deaths. Of course, as has been mentioned elsewhere, deaths were under-reported, and there have been significant lapses in entering data… a death listed today might have been last week, or last month. More testing is being done, although with testing mostly whena person is already very sick, naturally the percentage of mortality among those testing positive is much higher in Mexico than elsewhere. In the United States… where there are also issues surrounding testing, although one assumes better and more widespread testing, the case-fatality rate is only 6%, compared to Mexico’s 12%.

This does not mean twice as many Mexicans with COVID die as in the United States, only that twice as many Mexicans diagnosed die. Even if the fatality rate does triple to 38,000 that is still, by population, not much more than that in the United States today. In other words, when the pandemic runs its course, it’s expected the Mexicans will have taken less of a hit than the United States.

A huge worry is that the country is “opening up” too soon, which may be true, although for the most part, what openings there have been are those driven by political and economic factors, and not much different than the cautious measures taken elsewhere.

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