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Not a guerrilla attack says expert

11 July 2007

Doubts about the EPR “guerrilla attack” aren’t just showing up from the left. The conservative (some would say reactionary) Crónica de Hoy reports on one doubter of the “official” line 

The original article was written by Adolfo Sánchez Venegas, and posted on the Cronica website at 1:15 Mexico City time today. (My translation).

The) EPR does not have technical or economic capacity to make and detonate simultaneous bombs. Furthermore, it lacks the social base to carry out attacks in Guanajuato, where several explosions at PEMEX facilities occurred, Jose Luis Piñeiyro, a specialist in Mexican and Latin American military and national security issues said. He recalled the “palomazos” (pop-corn attacks) on ATM machines in the State of Morelos and the Federal District a few years back, which were also intitially considered attacks by guerrillas. “They were isolated incidents carried out by someone with the ability to work with explosives,” he added.

If one carefully analyzes the official notice sent by the Revolutionary Popular Army (ERP, for its intials in Spanish), we see several odd things:

“First off, they claim to have support in Guanajuato, which is not credible, since the ERP’s influence is reduced and limited to the states of Oaxaca, part of Chiapas, Hidalgo and Guerrero, but in Guanajuato it is very rare to hear about, and has not been charactized as an organization with movements or having guerrilla commandos.”

Interviewed by Crónica, he said is second doubt i based on the mix of general and particular in the communique.

“They say that they are against the Government and the oligarchy in general, but at the same time, General because they say that they are against the Government, of the Mexican oligarchy and, at the same time, plan a war while some members stay under arrest or in prison.”

Then, he indicated, there is something even stranger. A guerrilla commando, supposedly fighting to better the conditions of the people detonates these devices to protest the rarified climate of discussion of fiscal reforem, which does not involve PEMEX.

As we are abundantly aware, the company is subject to a financial system that undercapitalizes it’s ability to aquire machinery and to moderize.

Therefore, he insisted, it wouldn’t be strange if gas ducts had accidents, caused by lack of maintenance or obsolesce in the facility.

Asked if this meant that there is little credible evidence that the EPRhad the geographic mobility, minimal social support and technical capacity to detonate explosives simultaneously in four places. According to PEMEX bulletins immediately following the explosions is there any mention of attacks.

In addition, Guanajuanto’s Secretary of Public Security of Guanajuato denies that there were attemped guerrilla actions.”

Something important that needs to be added,” said the Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana researcher, “is that there has not been any technical investigation by APRA that would indicate whether there was an attack or not.”

 

“Expert investigators take days to do their work, yet the Secretariat of Interior nevertheless and the office of the President, both immediately issued statements condemning the acts and including official statements from the EPR.”

The most probable explanation is that there was an accident,” he emphasized.

Jose Luis Piñeiyro makes several of the points I did earlier today (mentioning the ATM attacks for example), but leaves unanswered the question of who — or why — the Presidency is so anxious to make this a EPR operation.  The Unapologetic Mexican has some thoughts about that.

The explosions may have been an accident (and one gas duct explosion will set off a chain reaction) that’s being spun to justify privatization of PEMEX.  Blogotitlan’s Eddy Torzón thinks so.  

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