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Poll dancing

19 April 2012


Milenio’s daily poll is not usually THIS far off (they counted 123 percent of likely voters?), but I don’t take it as gospel.  While all polls tend to show Peña Nieto as having a commanding lead, nearly none of them report undecided voters, nor are the demographic breakdowns (by income, or other indicator) generally reported.

I’m not sure that polling — even face to face — is accurate here.  A large number of potential voters don’t have land lines and won’t answer telephone calls from unknown persons.   And, so far, none of the polls I’ve seen indicate how many people refused to answer, or are still deciding whether or not to even vote.

Milenio’s poll at least shows undecided voters and whether or not I trust the numbers, shows some trending information.  Peña Nieto and Vásquez Mota have both been losing support, even though we haven’t had the debates, nor has the election season run even a third of its course.  Neither Peña Nieto nor Vásquez Mota are looking forward to the debates (and did their best to limit the number to two).  The debates usually (well, based on the few elections in which there have been debates) shake up the polls (last time out, AMLO unwisely skipped the first debate, and never recovered his momentum).

Barring a volcanic eruption (a plausible occurrence), the widely rumored “soon to be announced” and probably unlikely reappearance of El Señor (“Chapo” Guzmán to those of you outside Sinaloa) or any one of a thousand unexpected events, the the directions in which candidate support is moving in the Milenio Poll will probably continue — if present trends continue — which they won’t.

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