The indespensible Mouriño replaced
Updated: 12-Nov-08. David Agren of The (Mexico City) News provides a little more background on the new Sec. de Gob. in his comment. I’d also recommend his analysis of the political implications of the appointment from yesterday’s The News (which appeared after I’d posted this piece).
One of my favorite political sayings comes from the supposedly indespensible French leader Charles de Gaulle: “The world’s cemetaries are full of indespensible men.”
Juan Camilo Mouriño’s ashes were interred in the Campeche Cathederal following a religious service. This followed the official state funeral which was somewhat controversial because Felipe Calderon quoted the Bible — Matthew 5:18-12 — at a public government function. Mexicans are extremely senstitive about even the hint of breaching the separation between Church and State.
Fernando Francisco Gómez Mont Urueta, who Felipe Calderon has named as Secretaria de Gobernacion to replace the late Juan Camilo Mouriño.
Gómez Mont is probably a good choice institutionally, and not-so-great politically. I can find very little about the guy, other than he’s from a founding PANista family, worked as an advisor to the Zedillo Administration (the last PRI presidency). As a federal prosecutor he worked on investigations of the Colosio assasination and the weird Ruiz Massieu murder ( Ruiz Massieu was Carlos Salinas’ ex-brother-in-law who was supposed to investigate Salinas family ties to organized crime, but ended up with his throat slashed and an obviously faked suicide note beside him). He was also involved in criminal justice and election law reforms.
In private practice, he defended the Salinas brothers, and Rogelio Montemayor who allegedly embezelled a billion U.S. dollars from PEMEX.
Within the party, he has been a member of the Central Committee (I know that sounds Soviet, but that’s the “National Committee” for a Mexican party) and was one of his party’s representatives on the Federal Elections Commission (IFE).
The left-wing press isn’t screaming, which makes me think there’s not much in the way of obvious baggage (as there was with the Spanish-born, oil industry-tied Mouriño for them to complain about), but he doesn’t seem to be an exciting figure, and probably is another indication of how much a blow that plane crash (now said an accident, though some explanations are as appalling as sinister. One theory is the engine fell off — which could be spun into neglect by design. At any rate, a lot of people aren’t buying the government line) was politically.
At this point, I can’t think of any outstanding PAN leaders, though who would have thought of the bland Secretary of Energy, Felipe Calderon at this point in the Fox Administration?
Can’t tell your players without a scorecard
For the gangster-watchers among us, Blog Populi, Blog Dei provides a handy-dandy map of Zeta leaders broken down by state.
The Zetas, once again, are not an army, but just run-of-the-mill gangsters. They are more analogous to the old “Five Families” of the American Mafia than Al Quada… the differences being Zetas don’t belong to an identifiable ethnic minority or necessarily have familial ties to each other. They’re probably more brutal than the old American Mafia of the Godfather movies, but other than not being able to comfortably assume that the names of their victims suggest ties to their organization, they’re probably going to do much the same as the old mobsters did… become quasi-legitimate over time, investing in whatever the Mexican equivalent of Las Vegas might be.
It’s not nice to fool with Mother Nature
Massive flooding earlier this year in Ojinaga (Chihuahua) and Presidio (Texas) was caused for the most part by the Great Wall of Texas having blocked the natural flow of the Rio Grande. Homeland Security thought it could over-ride every law in the country … they forgot the laws of Nature:
Homeland Security officials have decided to halt building three segments of the border fence in the Rio Grande Valley for this year, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar said late Friday.
Concerns over the structure leading to more debris in the river and increasing the potential for flooding caused U.S. Customs and Border Protection to defer plans. The hydrology issues of building in the river’s flood plain had been highlighted by the International Boundary and Water Commission, Cuellar said.
The segments in Rio Grande City and Roma in Starr County and Los Ebanos in Hidalgo County add up to just more than 14 miles, Cuellar said.
Republicans could learn a thing or two from the P.R.I.
The State of Hidalgo municipal elections were yesterday. Outright, PRI only won 15 municipalities (out of 84), and another 37 in alliance with the “New Alliance” (PANAL) — which was a breakaway, conservative faction in PRI, headed by Esther Elba Gordillo. The Greens, who are normally PRI coalition partners, won five of the 84 communities.
PRD did better than might be expected, given it’s recent problems, winning 12 municipalities. The PRD national coalition partners, Convergencia and the Workers’ Party (PT) each took one municipality. PAN continues to do poorly in Central Mexico, capturing only eight municipal councils.
Nationally, PRI remains the largest political party and is recovering nicely from the disasterous 2006 Presidential elections. Its recent string of victories MAY hold lessons for the U.S. Republican Party. In 2006, the PRI had a terrible candidate (Roberto Madarozo) and — whatever the opposite is of a “coattail effect” cost the party in the Chamber and Senate dearly. Party chair Beatriz Paredes Rangel has concentrated on rebuilding the “base” — which in the PRI’s case is the moderate left. This has proved a shrewd move, with neo-liberalismo, which sought to tie the Mexican economy to the United States, has fallen out of fashion during her tenure. Paredes has a reputation as “Ms. Clean” and, given the party’s lingering whiff of corruption it acquired oMalcolm Beithver its all too long stranglehold on national office, has a good shot at being Mexico’s first woman president in 2012.
Malcolm Beith, in The (Mexico City) News believes PRI will instead — trying for a more youthful image (like the Republicans in the U.S., the PRI has not been attracting younger voters, who go either to the conservative PAN or more leftist PRD, or the emerging Convergencia and Greens) — opt for State of Mexico Governor Enrique Peña Nieto.
Come 2012, the young governor may represent the nation. While the PRI’s resurgence on a local level and expected landslide in 2009 midterms are by no means a guarantee of the next presidency, the lack of a strong candidate from the floundering National Action Party, or PAN, has propelled Peña Nieto into the spotlight.
Beith thinks (and I agree) that Mexico is returning to the left, and the PRI’s real rival in 2012 is likely to be from the PRD (in whatever configuration and coalition it exists in by then). The betting now is on Marcelo Ebrard Caubuson. Ebrard has an edge, given the Capital’s domination of the news cycle, and his decision to invest in infrastructure redevelopment during his tenure… which, given the economic crisis… makes similar proposals from the Calderon Administration appear to be copying PRD innovations. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will only be 59 in 2012, still young enough to be a viable candidate (there’s no age restriction, but its rare to see a candidate over sixty in Mexican elections). Ebrard is a protege of AMLO, but I don’t see him running again. If he has a future role in the system, it is probably in Convergencia, which could become the “left-er” wing of the leftist coalition, as an urban alternative to the more rural PT (Workers’ Party), which is (theoretically anyway) a Maoist party.
Unlike the United States, it’s all speculative at this point. There are no “permanent campaigns” in this country, though there is plenty of jockeying for power within the parties themselves. No one will seriously start looking at candidates for 2012 election until at least 2010… and we’ll be distracted with the bicentennial that year.
Paying the mortgages Americans won’t
Speculating on what he would do if he were Treasury Secretary (and simultaneously Chaiman of both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve Bank) CNBC “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer: has a simple plan for protecting banks from mortgage defaults:
“Obama must let it be known that there will be no more immigrant deportations,” “Like it or not – listen to me – so that immigrants, legal and illegal, will stop being afraid to buy homes.” Cramer referenced a study cited by CNBC “Street Signs” host Erin Burnett earlier in the day during the “Stop Trading” segment of her program. According to Burnett, the illegal immigrant mortgage payout is about 98 percent, versus a 92-94 percent range for mortgage payouts nationally.
“The home areas that are, have been most decimated are exactly where the immigrants were buying,” Cramer said. “It’s a major not-talked-about issue. By the way, the immigrants default rate is almost nil as the wonderful and fabulous one [Burnett] said to me today at 2 o’clock. These are the banks – these are the people the banks want to lend to as they will take on fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth and ninth jobs to keep their mortgages current.”
Sunday readings: 9 Nov. 2008
Off to a bad start...
I’m not the only one with serious reservations about the in-coming Obama Administration’s probable Latin American policy. Duderino at Abiding in Bolivia sounds a ” “Note of Caution” about Obama´s Bolivia advisor, Greg Craig:
…Craig speaking about the possible extradition of Bolivia´s ex-Pres “Goni” Sanchez de Lozada for his role in the 2003 El Alto Gas War in which more than 60 civilian protesters were shot dead by the national military. Summerized:
Cautious optimism…
Laura Carleson (CIP Americas Policy) is more optimistic about the change in U.S. policy, but with the same reservations most observers have:
An improved U.S. global image is not the same as on-the-ground policies and actions. Although statements from the region welcome change and the new profile in the White House, Latin American leaders still aren’t running to the mountaintop to proclaim the dawn of a new era in U.S. relations. The response can be characterized more as hope seen through the ever-leery eye the continent keeps on its northern neighbor. The U.S. government has a long way to go to undo the damage done to its relations and its reputation through decades of both Republican and Democratic presidencies.
Latin American leaders placed conditions and qualifications on their congratulations. Lula in Brazil and Evo Morales in Bolivia called for an end to the “unjustifiable” embargo against Cuba. Morales added a demand for withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region. Mexico’s Felipe Calderon sent a brief congratulatory note, calling for strengthening bilateral relations and emphasizing the role of Mexican-Americans in the elections and the U.S. economy. This was his way of insisting on action toward legalizing the status of Mexican immigrants and creating legal frameworks for future immigration flows.
…
President Obama rides in on a wave of enthusiasm from the South and the North. He has a huge agenda awaiting him. He should quickly appoint new ambassadors in Latin America, diplomats with greater knowledge and sensitivity to the region. Currently Bolivia and Venezuela have no ambassadors at all and other Bush appointments represent old and repudiated ways of doing business.
By far the most important challenge will be to listen. Bush imposed an agenda that sought to divide the continent in the narrow pursuit of the economic interests of transnational corporations and political interests of his own administration.
When Mexicans say: “If you don’t develop a fair and legal immigration system, you push migrants into the hands of human smugglers and feed organized crime. We have to do something differently.”
When Bolivia says: “Our constitutional process is a long-overdue historical reckoning with an indigenous majority suffering poverty and discrimination. It deserves a chance.”
These are messages worth listening to.
A hard (disk) sales pitch
The Magic Laptops from Colombia (supposedly recovered ter an illegal incursion into Ecuador by Colombian Army troops that killed FARC guerillas, and several Mexican students) were supposed to justify some huge international conspiracy invoiving — conveniently — every perceived enemy of the United States and Colombia. The best that Interpol was ever able to determine is that the data was produced before the raid… but the mysterious survival of the data is either the greatest miracle in the Americas since the Virgin of Guadelupe appeared on the Contintent, or total bullshit. I’m betting on the latter. Daniel Devir writes of the conitnuing (and more and more dubious) “spin campaign” surrounding the alleged miracle for NACLA.
These “magic laptops,” which seem to supply evidence of FARC collaboration at opportune moments for the Colombian and U.S. governments, have formed the centerpiece of a propaganda campaign launched by the Colombian government and security forces, abetted by the media in Colombia, the United States, and Spain. This campaign follows a well-established technique: Allegations of FARC ties have long been used in Colombia to defame human rights activists and dissident politicians, often leading to death threats or assassinations by the army or paramilitary forces. The laptop-based allegations have been made through press conferences and intelligence leaks, as new charges have been rolled out to counter Ecuador’s consistent diplomatic victories at the Organization of American States (OAS) and other international bodies. It has also served to distract attention at home from a growing scandal connecting the Uribe administration to narco-paramilitaries, as well as to justify the government’s policy of total war against the FARC.
The media campaign was launched as countries around the region—including Argentina, Chile, and Brazil—announced their support for Ecuador’s position, criticizing the violation of the country’s national sovereignty. The Colombian government, seeing its diplomatic fortunes wane, made more accusations, not just at Ecuador but increasingly at Venezuela, which also broke diplomatic relations with Colombia and deployed tanks to its border. Especially in the United States, the accusations against Venezuela soon eclipsed those against Ecuador.
The ICE-woman goeth…
Julie Myers announced she will be leaving her post as head of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement wing of the Homeland Security Department. “Marsguero” (The Sanctuary) says “Adios, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out…”:
While I don’t know Julie Myers personally, nor could I say that I am familiar with the inner workings of her bureaucratic lever pulling at the department, I can’t help but comment that it puzzles me how anyone could view ICE as emblematic of a “21st Century” law enforcement operation. Of course it’s axiomatic that the 21st Century serves as an adjective to the subject because after all this is the year 2008, and the department under which ICE is organized was not formed until the beginning of our present century. I will infer that what Mr. Chertoff means to say when he uses the term 21st century is that ICE is a state of the art, or cutting edge, or forward thinking kind of bureaucracy. It is none of these. It is a bloated gestapo.
Opening this week: Bretton Woods II
In preparation for “Bretton Woods II” — the G-20 Economic Summit to start in Washington this coming weekd, Nobel Economics Laureate (2001) Joseph Steiglitz writes in Mercopress (Uruguay) on the fallout from the U.S. banking, insurance, stock, — speculative bubble-investment economic meltdown… and its effects on the rest of the planet:
Many are already turning to the International Monetary Fund for help. The worry is that, at least in some cases, the IMF will go back to its old failed recipes: fiscal and monetary contraction, which would only increase global inequities. While developed countries engage in stabilizing countercyclical policies, developing countries would be forced into destabilizing policies, driving away capital when they need it most.
Ten years ago, at the time of Asia’s financial crisis, there was much discussion of the need to reform the global financial architecture. Little, too little, it is now evident, was done. At the time, many thought that such lofty appeals were a deliberate attempt to forestall real reform: those who had done well under the old system knew that the crisis would pass, and with it, so too would the demand for reform. We cannot let that happen again…
NEW AND NOTEWORTHY…
The for-now free Mexico City weekly El Capitalino has been publishing a daily on-line blog (El Capitalino al dia which I never found until this week. Unfortunately, the reporters’ collective that publishes the paper will have to start charging, and can’t update the “daily” daily… but still a worthwhile resource to add to your (and my) listings, bookmarks… whatever you use.
And a happy birthday to…
Marta Rojas Rodriguez, Cuban journalist and historical novelist, who recently turned 80. Her biggest challenge today comes from “Tequila” — a feisty Chihuahua who keeps chewing up her pens and pencils. Tracy Eaton (Along the Malecón) dropped by for a visit:
Marta, the daughter of a seamstress, gained fame in socialist Cuba for her coverage of Fidel Castro’s 1953 assault on the Moncada military barracks, an attack that launched the Cuban revolution. Marta covered Castro’s trial afterward and is said to be the only journalist who took meaningful notes during the legal proceedings, which include Castro’s four-hour “History Will Absolve Me” speech on Oct. 16, 1953.
…
Her grandmother was a slave in the Cuban town of Matanzas. Marta says that as the granddaughter of a slave, she doubts she would have had the same opportunities if not for the Cuban revolution.
Mouriño only “collateral damage”?
While the focus of world attention on last week’s crash of a government Lear Jet into the periferico was on Juan Camilo Mouriño’s death … and speculation that IF the crash was intentional, Mouriño was the target.
I don’t know enough about aircraft (I know zilch about aircraft) to do any more than accept the “official” statements on the crash. As of today, an explosion has been ruled out, and my understanding is that small aircraft have had problems with cross winds and tail winds (especially if a large plane is right in front of them, creating more turbulence), which could just mean the plane went out of control. It slammed into the periferico doing between 400 and 500 Km/Hr. I don’t know if that’s “normal” or indicative of something else.
The victims of the crash (remember, it hit a busy freeway at rush hour) now are about 15 to 20, including the people on board. Among them was José Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, the former Deputy Attorney General who stepped down recently because of perceived failures in the war on (some) drugs.
Malcolm Beith, in The (Mexico City) News quotes Ricardo Ravelo, who wrote for Proceso:
Vasconcelos was a key figure in combating drug trafficking: Amongst other detentions, he is credited with the investigations that resulted in the detention of Osiel Cárdenas Guillén (the imprisoned head of the Gulf cartel). … He also went after Amado Carillo Fuentes, the so-called “Lord of the Skies,” the boss of the Juárez cartel. … He combatted Los Zetas, as well as the Beltrán Leyva organization…
Beith adds:
His efforts against the Beltrán Leyva brothers, who purportedly ordered two attempts on Vasconcelos’ life earlier this year, have prompted much theorizing over Tuesday’s plane crash.
In television interviews this week, former anti-organized unit chief Samuel González Ruiz, who worked with Vasconcelos over the years, questioned why such a key man in the war on drugs would not have had a better security detail.
Carlos Puig, in Milenio, describes Vasconcelos as “a man who looked the devil in the eye. During Vasconcellos’ term as Attorney General, he was largely responsible for the changes in the legal code that have allowed for prosecution of the “drug lords” and had been the point-man on pushing through the Constitutional changes that allowed for a reform of the entire justice system. He was, at the time of the crash, a “special advisor” to Felipe Calderón on narcotic trafficking prosecutions. The security threats from the cartels to Vasconcelos were allegedly such that he never slept in the same place two nights in a row.
Mouriño was the political face of the anti-narcotics war and a political figure, rather than a prosecutor or strategician in what is usually described as a “war.” If Mouriño was the target of a “hit” it could easily have been in retaliation for any number of political reasons — or to shut up the very serious allegations of financial irregularities from his tenure at the oil ministry overseeing PEMEX contracts — rather than the narcotics dealers.
But, given the string of recent high-profile “victories” for prosecutors — the capture of an alleged Zeta “commander” (who, despite the myths of rogue special forces soliders, was ex-Air Force, not Army and not a member of any special forces unit) and another major arms seizure in Reynosa — both indicate long-term planning, and were operational rather than policy functions. In other words, something Vasconcellos rather than Mouriño would have been involved with.
Throw in the today’s arrest of Rodolfo de la Guardia García, the former Interpol director, and a high level investigator for the Federal anti-narcotics squad of the Federal Investigative Agency (AFI, somewhat similar to the FBI in the United States) for taking bribes and passing along information to the Beltrán Leyva brothers’ in Sinaloa, Vasconcellos seems a more and more tempting target for a “hit” all the time… if it wasn’t an accident.
The Trojan Burro
Beware of cruise lines bearing gifts…
In South Philly on Sunday, Carnival Cruise Lines set the world record for building the world’s largest piñata. The company invited Philly residents to check out the piñata at Broad and Washington and be part of a commercial shoot. The original plan was to tear down the six-story beast with a wrecking ball, and spill more than 8,000 pounds of candy (mostly sugary stuff, no chocolate) onto the ground. Nearly 10,000 people showed up — only to walk away disappointed when the piñata was never demolished.
“There was some sort of technical difficulty with the commercial shoot,” says Jen Dobrzelecki, a spokesperson for Carnival Cruise Lines. “Since we got so many people — more than we anticipated — we decided to break it on another day.”
Photo: Andy Newman, Philadelphia City Paper Net
(Sombrero tip: Laura Martinez)
The circus animals’ desertions
I sought a theme and sought for it in vain,
I sought it daily for six weeks or so….
“Lion and woman and the Lord knows what”, indeed!
Back in early August (the sixth, to be exact), the Associated Press printed this startling story from Acapulco:
Woman riding a donkey fights off lion with machete
A machete wielding lion would be quite an interesting act in itself, even without the woman and donkey act… and I guess it deserved international attention. Then, there was that bus accident on the Teotihucan Highway just outside Mexico City involving Hilda the Elephant and a bus. Typical of the English-speaking press coverage, Hilda got the attention. The PEOPLE? Lucy Cockcroftof the U.K Telegraph is rather dismissive of what happened to them: “Bus driver Tomas Lopez, 49, also died and at least four passengers were taken to hospital after the accident…”
Photo: Noticieros Televisa
Then, just this week, there was yet another circus animal – Mexican “interaction,” this time involving three tigers. A circus truck was involved in an accident (shades of the demise of the late Hilda) — the truck carrying the tigers hit a light-pole and the impact was enough to spring the doors on their cage — and the big kitties took the chance to explore Zitacuaro. Although police, rescue units and the national Environmental Protection Agency (Profepa) were called into action, the cats’ trainers were able to lure the kitties back with chicken treats (whole chickens, but whether live or dead wasn’t clear). The tigers were found in neighborhood yards, not in a junkpile in the middle of a wheatfield. That would have been sad … Tres tristes tigres tragaban trigo, en tres tristes trastos en un trigal. En tres tristes trastos en un trigal, tres tristes tigres tragaban trigo.
This is the third animal runs amok story in the last four months … I’m of the theory that once is an experience, twice a coincidence and three times a perversion. Or… maybe subversion. Is there a circus animal liberation front at work?
mexfiles.net 